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Polish government dead in plane crash!!!

Bjoern said:
I wonder what the cause of the crash was. Trying to land in CAT III conditions with CAT I equipment?

Also, it couldn't have been the airplane alone. According to Wikipedia, the Tu-154 got back from an overhaul fairly recently. And the 154 is a fairly safe aircraft. Most crashes involving a Careless are attributed to pilot error.
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If I had to guess, I would say you are correct!

One of the reasons for the two strike rule is that if you keep trying, there is too much risk to delay going around when you reach minimums without breaking out. Sometimes, the real tragedy is the pilot thinks he sees the runway but with so little time to confirm, ends up selecting what turned out to be a nearby parallel running road or something else.

Your whole military and executive branch of government onboard wanting to attend a nationally important ceremony, and one can only imagine the pressure on the pilot-in-command. But, those rules are there for a monumental reason as there's been far too many tragic outcomes like this one (but not as nationally significant). One of the toughest lessons for a PIC to accept is that the weather or maintenance condition of your aircraft doesn't give one damn about the importance of your mission!

Ken
 
Hi,

Some infos about this particular plane:

Aviation expert Mark Miller said allegations that the 26-year-old plane is the cause of the crash are likely unfounded.

The plane that was carrying the Polish president had recently undergone refurbishments, including the addition of "three Rolls Royce engines -- some of the most sophisticated and advanced engines available today," Miller told CTV News Channel Saturday in a telephone interview. "This idea that the plane was unsafe is an unfair characterization."
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http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20100410/tu_154_100410/20100410?hub=World:

I agree and my toughts (pure speculation of course) are (again !) a pilot error or at least a misjudgement.
 
Ken Stallings said:
One of the reasons for the two strike rule is that if you keep trying, there is too much risk to delay going around when you reach minimums without breaking out. Sometimes, the real tragedy is the pilot thinks he sees the runway but with so little time to confirm, ends up selecting what turned out to be a nearby parallel running road or something else.

Your whole military and executive branch of government onboard wanting to attend a nationally important ceremony, and one can only imagine the pressure on the pilot-in-command. But, those rules are there for a monumental reason as there's been far too many tragic outcomes like this one (but not as nationally significant). One of the toughest lessons for a PIC to accept is that the weather or maintenance condition of your aircraft doesn't give one damn about the importance of your mission!
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Yeah, something along those lines.

Although it would be baffling to see that "Poland One" was lost due to pilot error. I know that even the best of the best can have a bad day, but intentionally landing in adverse conditions despite (apparent) warnings from ATC? Wow...:isadizzy:
 
My sincerest condolences to the country of Poland and those of Polish extraction with ties to the home country. Military historians mock the Poles defense of their country in 1939 by attacking tanks on horseback with lances. Their should be better historians; the Polish troops darted in and out, causing the tanks in many cases to shoot at each other, and attacked the vision slits of the vehicles, foolishly left open in the heat, and accounted for a fair number of tank personnel as casualties. You make do, and inflict the maximum damage, with what you got, the Poles did this with devastating effect. Like I said, we need better historians and not armchair revisionists who do not have an eye for tactical brilliance.

In our grief and mourning however we should not forget the Russian track record insofar as this sort of national inferiority complex ingrained in them. A whole government is liquidated flying to a memorial of the Russian's liquidation of the Polish officer corps in 1939, and the government is flying in a Russian plane?

Google the names Patrice Lamumba and Dag Hammarskjöl, use the Gestalt method and investigate all the facts surrounding the deaths of these two men, who were not on the Russian's list of favorite people either, and you'll see what really happened to cause this sad and tragic event in present day.

Sorry friends, I smell a rat. "Accident"? Right, my posterior chews bubble gum too.

Tony Bones
 
tonybones2112 said:
A whole government is liquidated flying to a memorial of the Russian's liquidation of the Polish officer corps in 1939, and the government is flying in a Russian plane?
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[Sarcasm]Totally not understandable after 50+ years as a soviet satellite state...[/Sarcasm]

People also drive german cars to Holocaust memorials.
 
My sympathies to our Polish members. To know the cause is only interesting when you can use it to avoid reoccurring.

I think the event is already sad enough and can really do without any guessing and an other conspiracy theory.

Huub
 
huub vink said:
My sympathies to our Polish members. To know the cause is only interesting when you can use it to avoid reoccurring.

I think the event is already sad enough and can really do without any guessing and an other conspiracy theory.

Huub
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I think William Of Occam might take offense, were he here, at his philosophy being called a "conspiracy theory". all life is based on conspiracy and it would be wise for us to abandon Neville Chamberlain's emulation of the ostrich in the face of clear, circumstantial evidence if nothing else based on a proven track record.

These people were murdered.

My desire to emigrate to the planet Mars is not one based on economic factors but because this planet is becoming inhabited by an inordinate number of ostriches and sheep.

Bones
 
tonybones2112 said:
I think William Of Occam might take offense, were he here, at his philosophy being called a "conspiracy theory". all life is based on conspiracy and it would be wise for us to abandon Neville Chamberlain's emulation of the ostrich in the face of clear, circumstantial evidence if nothing else based on a proven track record.

These people were murdered.

My desire to emigrate to the planet Mars is not one based on economic factors but because this planet is becoming inhabited by an inordinate number of ostriches and sheep.

Bones
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well, it's a little too early for me to buy stock in the conspiracy theories, but come to think of it there were reports of it burning in the air. I assumed it was because fog glows 100's of feet high when aircraft burn in it, this I know from experience. At this point, I wouldn't rule anything out. If you'll remember a long time ago, they claimed that TWA flight 800 was shot down with a missile. That was disproven.
 
Sorry, but I cannot accept that -- the claim of murder, that is.

Ken
 
Tony, I find this talk of conspiracies and 'murder' highly disrespectful; 96 people perished today in what according to all known facts and witness accounts was a tragic accident.

My condolences go out to their families, the people of Poland and our Polish SOH members.
 
tigisfat said:
well, it's a little too early for me to buy stock in the conspiracy theories, but come to think of it there were reports of it burning in the air. I assumed it was because fog glows 100's of feet high when aircraft burn in it, this I know from experience. At this point, I wouldn't rule anything out. If you'll remember a long time ago, they claimed that TWA flight 800 was shot down with a missile. That was disproven.
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Before someone jumps in with wild shootdown or bomb theories, witnesses saw the aircraft very low on approach banking to the left when the wing struck trees. Fire was seen flashing out of the wing then the plane slammed into the ground and broke up.
 
The very man the Poles moan today is responsible for the crash and 130 dead, and not the pilots, I am afraid. That was my suspicion early today, and it has only grown since..and now I am almost certain. I fear this was a completely unnecessary crash, caused by a dictatorial and self sufficient man who was used to be obeyed, and who sacked pilots careers before if they didn't do what they were told.
 
KOM.Nausicaa said:
The very man the Poles moan today is responsible for the crash and 130 dead, and not the pilots, I am afraid. That was my suspicion early today, and it has only grown since..and now I am almost certain. I fear this was a completely unnecessary crash, caused by a dictatorial and self sufficient man who was used to be obeyed, and who sacked pilots careers before if they didn't do what they were told.
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Neither the time nor place for that comment, my friend.

My condolences to all those who have been touched by this tragedy.
 
Exactly the time and the place for that comment. Others in this very thread speculate about pilot a error. I speculate about a dictatorial man who obliged pilots to land against their professional judgement. The 4 go arounds (against better knowledge as teasea said), the ignored tower messages - everything speaks for it. And events in the past of this president back it up. Moaning yes, respect yes. But for the right people. That doesnt mean there is an obligation to stop thinking. Looking for the truth is no disrespect of the dead, it's respect for the dead.
 
I'm inclined to agree. Something is out of sorts here -- that is for sure. Given the solemn duty of being the PIC flying your nation's most senior leadership implies the highest professional skills. Yet, this accident is even more shocking than the recent Calgon flight that was caused by truly poor pilot decision-making and training.

So, something else had to be at work.

I am not knowlegable sufficiently to declare the history of the passengers of that aircraft. And clearly even if I did it doesn't affect the ramifications of the tragedy. However, if those pilots were literally browbeaten by the passengers to do things they were not otherwise willing to do, then that must be the primary causal factor of the crash. And further, it must therefore become the primary actionable reform made to help prevent it.

I cannot say Nausicaa's comments are accurate, and I'm sure even he would agree that he is not 100% certain either. But, he has strong suspicions and I think his comments deserve some latittude for airing.

Cheers,

Ken
 
KOM.Nausicaa said:
Exactly the time and the place for that comment. Others in this very thread speculate about pilot a error. I speculate about a dictatorial man who obliged pilots to land against their professional judgement. The 4 go arounds (against better knowledge as teasea said), the ignored tower messages - everything speaks for it. And events in the past of this president back it up. Moaning yes, respect yes. But for the right people. That doesnt mean there is an obligation to stop thinking. Looking for the truth is no disrespect of the dead, it's respect for the dead.
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In addition to my previous comments, I must add as a commercial pilot myself, that ultimately the PIC is personally responsible for the safety of his passengers and has internationally recognized lawful authority to act on his own judgment. So, regardless of the background, if what I think happened here did, in fact, happen, then it must be ruled pilot error.

Respectfully,

Ken
 
'Tis just tragic news.
How about we don't let the thread spin into the usual speculations - none of us were there, or even know anything at all beyond the news reporting.
And especially let us not hear about how Russian airliners are intrinsically unsafe, especially Russian Polish ones.
 
Hi,

My speculations :)

Pilot error or missjudgement caused by pressure of the VIP cause the event waiting to be performed (the memorial)
The captain is the only one to take the decision (with the help of the copilot).. pressure or not .. above him is God.

4 landings attempts ? !!
I name the pilot (s) stuborn unless he don't have any fuel in reserve (fuel starvation) for deroute the plane to a other airport ....
 
Condolences to the families AND the Polish people. I am sure the country will overcome this as history has proven that the Polish people are brave and will survive.

Not sure what this may mean for the Eastern European region as Poland is the stalwart there. Eyes need to be focused on that region right now. Poland has been a good ally of the United States...many of us recognize that... even if some here don't.

Once again sincerest condolences on your loss.
 
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