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Boeing 777 down...

bstolle,

The NTSB previously released what the target approach speed was supposed to be and then a day later released how many MPH the approach was flown below that target speed. What I wrote was simple math

As I mentioned before, the approach was not 'flown below target speed'. The speed continuosly dropped from way above to way below target speed and that's an essential difference.

@StormILM, I don't know how much the A/T differs from the 767 but if the approach speed is set and A/T engaged, I have no idea why it didn't respond. Even with the speedbrakes out the speed shouldn't have dropped below the set target. As you said, some important piece of information seems to be missing.
 
@StormILM, I don't know how much the A/T differs from the 767 but if the approach speed is set and A/T engaged, I have no idea why it didn't respond. Even with the speedbrakes out the speed shouldn't have dropped below the set target. As you said, some important piece of information seems to be missing.

Bernt, I don't think they're too terribly different other than the button/input layout but the general logic and engine response is roughly the same if I am correct. As you know(and I mention for the purpose of the readers here) if engaged, the indicator lights on the button would have been illuminated and an indication on the PFD followed by an engine response up/down in RPM seen on the center display and an audible indication of the RPM. If the A/T and Speed Brakes were both deployed, the engines would have compensated to maintain the set speed. A Big piece of the puzzle is missing. I would like to reiterate that I've heard from a 777 Captain's mouth that there have been instances of false speed indications/erros on the PFD during different phases of the flight which were both sensor issues or software glitches/anomalies although not a widespread occurrence. What I didn't get clear(didn't ask) was if such data error(s) depending on the source would have caused the A/T to go into sleep mode(non-movement of the throttle levers) or any kind of erratic throttle movements. Still trying to get a handle on that.

I'd also be willing to bet that whatever distraction or chaos that may have been going on, the crew likely reverted to their native language which the CVR audio is being carefully scrutinized by translators rendering the nearest English equivalent of what they were saying.
 
That's going to be interesting......

On Jul 9th 2013 the NTSB reported in their third press conference based on pilot interviews, that at 500 feet AGL the PAPIs were showing three red one white and the pilot began to pull back on the yoke to reduce rate of descent assuming the autothrottles would maintain the speed set to 137 knots. A lateral deviation developed taking the attention of the crew. Descending through 200 feet all PAPIs were red and the speed had decayed into the red/black marked range, the crew realised the autothrottles were not maintaining the target speed, at that point the autothrottles started to move the levers forward.
 
Wow! I wonder what exactly they mean by "Lateral Deviation"? External factor(wind gust) or something with the aircraft/control system? When the PIC pulled up elevator and the there was no power response/increase, it added a good bit of drag/speed & alt loss(as evidenced by the video). Still, before that they had the chance to simply manually throttle up and go around if they had heeded the speed data on the PFD(assuming it was accurate). I'm shaking my head. Wondering how much the FDR data will corroborate or contradict the pilot's statements?
 
fliger747 , we need your perspective to this

I hope fliger747 chimes in on this discussion . I think we all would love to read his comments on this . The more I think about it , maybe he wouldn't be able to since this is still under investigation and he still is an active airline pilot . I don't know .

Rich
 
First of all, I have to say I'm dismayed that the NTSB is releasing, in dribs and drabs, 'elements' of the investigation. I know... we live in a world where there is a demand for instant information and gratification, but we are getting bits from only compartmentalized segments (flight ops & witnesses) of the investigation and that is showing only a limited view of a complex event which can easily lead to prejudicial conclusions. It's great to show that the NTSB is "on the case" but it also allows too many opinions to be formed without a complete overview of all the parts. Of course, this is partly a reaction to the public impression that keeping stuff 'secret' is bad and everyone is entitled to immediate information.

As you said, some important piece of information seems to be missing.

Little substantive information is, so far, available from the Airframe, Powerplant and Systems teams, hardly anything detailed from Meteorology, let alone analysis from background sections like crew training and maintenance. Several of these analyses will take a significant amount of time before they can be conclusively ruled out as causal factors or found to be culpable. CVR and FDR reporting is, in many cases, the easiest to wade through with current technology, but until every section gathers their facts, assembles them into conclusions and then all are overlaid on the timeline it's risky for outsiders to even try to form a hunch, let alone a comprehensive answer.

"Black boxes" and videos are great tools in the investigative process (we've come a long way) but they only show one view of the event. I realize that after all these years we still need to provide reassurance to Joe Schmuck so he can go buy his next ticket, and the sooner the better for the media (so they can move on to the next big story) and to alleviate the anguish of those who feel everything should be simple, but after 50 years of being around aircraft crashes and investigations I know there is one constant that can't be avoided... it takes a LOT of time to assemble the jigsaw puzzle into a complete picture. Six months to a preliminary report, 18-24 months before a final one is not only common but wise. It allows time for the emotional impact to be filtered and gives the various teams opportunity to look for and analyze the 'silly little bits' that could prove to be significant.

In the meantime, we move on.... http://www.flickr.com/photos/12328332@N03/9246475294/sizes/o/in/photostream/
 
Having some 10,000 plus hours as a 747 captain, including the new 747-8, which shares a lot of flight systems with the 777, I will be fairly harsh with the airmanship involved. In a large aircraft, such as 747-777 etc a visual approach is actually one of the most difficult evolutions. That it was day, CAVU, makes it somewhat less so than for instance a night approach. Asian carriers have little aviation community to draw pilots of broad experience, an increasing trend elsewhere. Pretty much they are trained to be box manipulators, a visual is almost an emergency for them! The plane can set up a Lnav/Vnav arrival, which can create a synthetic glideslope that actually works pretty well, if in the conditions it would require being hand flown the last thousand vertical feet or so. One then has a flight director to precisely provide guidance.

Autothrottles should be off if the plane is hand flown, that way you know who is really flying and what is going on, these guys didn't with fatal results. I see this all the time on the line, especially as we have merged with an airline which over relied on autothrottles, even in the sim, engine out, which makes things much less managable.

Approach was high, they dived, got too low, pulled up without adding power, behind the power curve, drag and sink increasing, speed bleeding off. Pilots were passengers in an unrecognized deteriorating scenario. Sometimes you have to be ready to abort a poor situation at first recognition. That takes experience. In long haul flying such experience becomes stale even in those who have had it. 47 hours only meant a few landings in the actual plane and probably no visual approaches. A new check Captain may have been hesitant to take over as that would probably be a disqualification for the student.

Sometimes you have to be able to just turn the crap off and fly the plane. Even my airline encourages the autopilot on at 500 ft on takeoff, a big mistake I think. The guys don't get to fly that much and just get worse.

T
 
Sometimes you have to be able to just turn the crap off and fly the plane. Even my airline encourages the autopilot on at 500 ft on takeoff, a big mistake I think. The guys don't get to fly that much and just get worse.

T

Oh man, a big AMEN from me on that one! That single sentence sums it all up very well indeed!

I've been biting my own tongue on that one this whole time and I'm so glad to see you bring it out hard and honest.

As pilots, we have such a huge responsibility on our shoulders when we fly passengers, for hire or free, or in military duties. We have to be the most critical critics of our own performance and do what is necessary to keep our procedures as sharp as possible. I know ALPA has been singing warnings to the airlines on this very issue and for what it's worth I support them on this. The automation is great, but it cannot ever be allowed to mask eroding pilot skills. And perhaps the most vital of those skills is the instrument scan to alert the crew of negative developments as quickly as possible.

Ken
 
That's going to be interesting......

On Jul 9th 2013 the NTSB reported in their third press conference based on pilot interviews, that at 500 feet AGL the PAPIs were showing three red one white and the pilot began to pull back on the yoke to reduce rate of descent assuming the autothrottles would maintain the speed set to 137 knots. A lateral deviation developed taking the attention of the crew. Descending through 200 feet all PAPIs were red and the speed had decayed into the red/black marked range, the crew realised the autothrottles were not maintaining the target speed, at that point the autothrottles started to move the levers forward.

Doesn't that match what the NTSB reported to the public yesterday with regard to leaving the autothrottles in the armed position, and it captured the idle position the crew used to rapidly get on glideslope; and therefore there was inadequate power and the jet went the "40 MPH" below approach speed that the NTSB first reported two days ago? I put 40 MPH in quotes because that's what the NTSB investigator reported yesterday in her interview.

Ken
 
I agree.

The 777 Captain who I've been conversing with is family (and for obvious reasons I keep his name and company's name clear here) but he's been flying the 777 since 2002 having come from considerable service in the 767. It's important to point out that there is a tug-of-war(which is not exactly new news) of sorts going on in the industry where the automation is being pushed more and more. Tom and my family member come from a time when automation capability wasn't as it is now and accordingly, less trusted and there was considerably more hand flying then than now. The "Box Puncher" breed does rely heavily on the automation but that is being driven by a culture inside the manufacturers and the regulatory powers that believes automation is superior to pilot skills. I actually heard an FAA inspector make the latter statement not long ago. My best friend who's been flying A319/320's a while now noted to me that when in training on the Bus and during his first couple of years holding a line as an FO, he was encouraged to leave the A/T on with the TAS set during the approach(after the AP was switched off). After some time he began to cut off the A/T and manually adjust the throttles as needed during approach and he says it's more comfortable to him to do so. But generally, the automation is being pushed and as you guys rightfully point out, this is coming at the expense of vital perishable skills. The back channel speak about possible issues with the automation on the 777 and this accident have people in the industry quite spooked on both sides of the fence. But still using/trusting the automation is being pushed more and more yet things can and do go wrong with it all the time. Just in the last 2-3 years, my family member and my friend say their sim sessions and recurrent training have taken an increased focus on hand flying and automation failures and they are being encouraged now to hand fly their aircraft at regular intervals. I agree and have argued a long time that the mentality on automation and pilot skill maintenance has to be turned around before more statistics are created.
 
leaving the autothrottles in the armed position, and it captured the idle position the crew used to rapidly get on glideslope;

Using the A/T on the 777 is a 4 step process(direct speed control not utilizing a managed FMS modes), setting the TAS, arming the A/T system, setting the rotary mode control, then depressing the A/T(speed control button) the Autothrottles will adjust to reach that speed regardless of if the aircraft is high or low in the G/S. The G/S deviation wasn't that great according to the FDR but they were 33 kias fast coming up on short final. If the plane was at 170(at and prior to the 1600ft point) then the A/T speed was set to that. Once the speed was dialed to the TAS for approach, the autothrottles would retard to idle and then rapidly respond to assure the speed didn't fall below that. Two scenarios: There was a malfunction and the crew missed it/were distracted until recovery was too late or they disarmed the speed hold button and pulled the throttles to idle manually(to dump the excess speed) with the intention of reengaging the A/T speed hold at the TAS but were distracted from doing so. Either way, it bolsters the Pilot Error concern.
 
In long haul flying such experience becomes stale even in those who have had it. 47 hours only meant a few landings in the actual plane and probably no visual approaches.

That brings up an interesting question. How much of any pilot's loggable hours can actually be classified as "manual flying" versus the amount that was on autopilot control? Is it so low that it would be measurable in minutes rather than hours?

On that ~10 hour flight how many minutes would realistically be considered hand flying? Ten minutes perhaps?
 
The flight log or the FAA etc. doesn't distinguish between AP on and off flying.
Normally you fly manually until flap retraction after take off and the last 1000ft before landing. Of course you can fly the whole approach manually but concentraion goes down rather fast.
Interestingly a few surveys found out that the worst time to switch off the AP/AT is at the outer marker altitude. Either way earlier e.g. at 3000ft or way after that e.g. 1000ft.
1000ft is a good altitude because you have time to adapt to the actual CG, attitude, thrust required etc....
10hrs flight = 5min maximum of manual flying (now you know why I switched back to short/medium range from my longrange career)
Nevertheless even if on AP/AT you have to monitor both very close and check for the least even slighty unusual response from the AP/AT.
 
"Flying is hours of boredom, punctuated by moments of stark terror" - usually at each end of the flight.
Unfortunately very true in this case, but also one of the reasons I never took up the opportunity of joining the Hamble courses in the late 50's!
Keith
 
The flight log or the FAA etc. doesn't distinguish between AP on and off flying.
Normally you fly manually until flap retraction after take off and the last 1000ft before landing. Of course you can fly the whole approach manually but concentraion goes down rather fast.
Interestingly a few surveys found out that the worst time to switch off the AP/AT is at the outer marker altitude. Either way earlier e.g. at 3000ft or way after that e.g. 1000ft.
1000ft is a good altitude because you have time to adapt to the actual CG, attitude, thrust required etc....
10hrs flight = 5min maximum of manual flying (now you know why I switched back to short/medium range from my longrange career)
Nevertheless even if on AP/AT you have to monitor both very close and check for the least even slighty unusual response from the AP/AT.

Perhaps the only good that can come out of this mishap is to force the airline industry to start taking more seriously the complaints of pilots that there has been too much reliance upon automation. I think this mindset has also crept into airliner design as there has been a trend toward the automation taking more of an active and unoverridable role in flight control. These changes were made due to the analysis of pilot error mishaps in the past, and the engineering conclusion that by automating processes deemed mundane, pilots would be in less a position to allow human error to turn an otherwise properly functioning flight into a deadly mishap.

On paper, it sounds like good logic. But, as with all things, a good idea taken to an extreme often causes problems. If relied upon on mass scale, are computers really better than humans? Or, do mechanical systems ultimately remove the ability of a human to exercise judgment in an extreme situation. I remember Sullerger's heroic ditching in the Hudson. What if automation made it impossible for him to maintain the deck angle he had to enter the water at to prevent catatrophic airframe damage?

But, the third rail of this negative trend is that national flight authoritities, such as the FAA in the United States, have also taken hold on this idea of automation supplanting the role of pilots to fly the aircraft. The classic joke, that certainly isn't a good joke in light of this tragedy, is that the future airliners will have a cockpit built for a single pilot and a dog. The pilot to monitor the systems, and the dog to bite the pilot's hand if he tries to manually fly the aircraft!

You combine this with the human nature to lose sharpness over routine tasks through repetition, and suddenly the very same human behavior problem that so often led to mishaps when perfectly working aircraft were flown into terrain becomes the model where automation that doesn't work as expected -- whether by bad human inputs or malfunction -- goes without notice until too late to prevent tragedy.

It seems to my eye that the solution to this quandry is for the airline industry to assign a series of mandates for manual control of jets during critical phases of flight, with a disciplined requirement of additional pilot oversight to avert mishaps that could result. Further, make these mandates scheduled so that all pilots have to log a certain number of manual controlled events per semi-annual period, and making it a currency item, done at least once every month. Further, airlines should revamp their operating instructions so that pilots are given a tighter series of monitoring protocols that would treat the automation much like an additional human pilot, subjected to the same degree of scutiny that any human pilot would be subjected to when flying the procedures manually.

Ken
 
Ken, excellent writeup! I agree with every word.

About 20 years ago there was an article titled "Sky Kings No More"(which I think was syndicated by USA Today but I may be wrong). That article made light of the impending increase of automation reliance that essentially replaced skills and systems interfacing once totally controlled by Pilots. The driving side of the FAA and Aircraft manufacturers was that this was needed to "reduce/eliminate human error" aspects that caused many accidents. But the Airline Pilot's rebuttal to the prime points mentioned by the FAA in that article mirror nearly identical points you just wrote. It's long been said that training standards in place need to be overhauled. The FAA has always been notoriously slow in making changes but with this and other accidents (like Air France 447), many airlines are making their own changes in crew training and recurrent training anyway. A good number of those companies are literally one accident away from going out of business.
 
1.I think this mindset has also crept into airliner design as there has been a trend toward the automation taking more of an active and unoverridable role in flight control.
2.I remember Sullerger's heroic ditching in the Hudson. What if automation made it impossible for him to maintain the deck angle he had to enter the water at to prevent catatrophic airframe damage?
3.It seems to my eye that the solution to this quandry is for the airline industry to assign a series of mandates for manual control of jets during critical phases of flight, with a disciplined requirement of additional pilot oversight to avert mishaps that could result.
4.Further, make these mandates scheduled so that all pilots have to log a certain number of manual controlled events per semi-annual period,

1. Nothing critically important is 'unoverridable' in an airliner
2. Guess you mean Sullenberger. Well, if it hadn't been an Airbus the outcome of the ditching would have been most probably worse.
3. That's what the airlines do since decades
4. How much do you think we use AP and A/T during the semi-annual simulator checks? I doubt than too many GA or corporate pilots would be able to fly a non-precision approach with a crippled airliner on one engine, with 2 inop hydraulic systems, followed by a circling approach in heavy rain with a 15kts crosswind.
 
The flight log or the FAA etc. doesn't distinguish between AP on and off flying.

Well, that was actually my main point Bernt, that one's total logged hours really indicates little about one's actual experience just "flying the plane..."

...unless of course the majority of those logged hours were in an aircraft without automated systems, like say an F86... :icon_lol:
 
That's totally correct. The number of flights is the important factor. I've flown the 767 for almost 10 years and it took me 2 month on the A320 series to achieve the same number of landings.
Furthermore 99% of the longrange approaches are ILS approaches while on short/medium range there are much more visual and non-precision approaches included.
It's happens quite often that e.g. 777 pilots don't even achieve the minimum number of landings required per law during airlines ops and those poor guys have to get into the 777 sim and perform the landings there to stay 'proficient'.
 
Bernt, you hit the nail right on the head. Regardless of what automation and/or technology that is installed in the plane, it is the pilot's job to monitor those systems with the same diligence as if he/she were flying the aircraft manually. To fully depend on those systems and never monitoring them is an incident approaching rapidly.

Don
 
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