China's 5th generation fighter?

[wiltzei]

"Chinese TV May Have Used Top Gun Footage as Real-Life Air Force Footage"

 

[centuryseries]

The theory behind stealth technology at least in the F-117's case is out there already. China has many scientists and mathematicians who could work it out for themselves.

Just because the US was the first to exploit the maths behind it all, doesn't mean to say that other countries can't figure it out for themselves!! Especially given todays computing power.

 

[Allen]

"Chinese TV May Have Used Top Gun Footage as Real-Life Air Force Footage"

Now there just being lazy. Iran would have photoshoped it at least.....

 

[deathfromafar]

The theory behind stealth technology at least in the F-117's case is out there already. China has many scientists and mathematicians who could work it out for themselves.

Just because the US was the first to exploit the maths behind it all, doesn't mean to say that other countries can't figure it out for themselves!! Especially given todays computing power.

China could not come up with the technology and manufacturing techniques of the previous J-10 Fighter and it's engines on their own. They had to borrow the IAI Lavi fighter from Israel and the AL-31F tooling from Russia to make that project a reality. But I give them credit for making a truly advanced copy based on a working design and tooling up their industry to meet the demands of that. Time & $$$ saved.

The geometry behind Stealth is only part of the puzzle. The manufacturing techniques and highly specialized materials used in Stealth are not so easily copied. That's not to mention the delicate interfacing of systems and avionics that if not done correctly can literally neutralize the advantages normally gained in Stealth techniques. Until recently and after over 30+ years of the US being the only builder and operator of Stealth Combat Aircraft, suddenly both Russian and China build two prototypes 12 years after the F-117 loss/materials recovery and known cases of espionage from workers who had access to sensitive information. Even in those two prototypes, there are very obvious signs that there are major pieces of the puzzle missing for them but at least now they are in the game albeit at entry level. That in itself cannot be ignored or dismissed.

 

[centuryseries]

Until recently and after over 30+ years of the US being the only builder and operator of Stealth Combat Aircraft, suddenly both Russian and China build two prototypes 12 years after the F-117 loss/materials recovery and known cases of espionage from workers who had access to sensitive information. Even in those two prototypes, there are very obvious signs that there are major pieces of the puzzle missing for them but at least now they are in the game albeit at entry level. That in itself cannot be ignored or dismissed.

While everyone is harping on about the Russians and Chinese being handed information from defectors or from espionage, lets not forget that the US built up it's space program and furthered it's aircraft design from WW2 German scientists. (Along with the British).

This sort of espionage is clearly not a new thing.

But I also need to inject the fact that China has massive manufacturing potential. Indeed the Microsoft keyboard I'm typing this message on was made in China along with so many other items in my house.

You shouldn't underestimate the fact that a country that manufactures for a global market cannot come up with it's own designs.

China is on the verge, or perhaps is already a global super power.

While these designs are fledgling designs, they don't look like the F-117, nor F-22 or even the F-35 - therefore we cannot assume that they have copied the principles and radar absorbing materials that drove those designs.

Overwhelming numbers are a match for stealth technology - and China is big enough to field overwhelming numbers, just like Russia used to be.

 

[Bjoern]

Now there just being lazy. Iran would have photoshoped it at least.....

 

[deathfromafar]

While these designs are fledgling designs, they don't look like the F-117, nor F-22 or even the F-35 - therefore we cannot assume that they have copied the principles and radar absorbing materials that drove those designs.

Overwhelming numbers are a match for stealth technology - and China is big enough to field overwhelming numbers, just like Russia used to be.

Overwhelming numbers can easily translate to overwhelming piles of scrap metal if employed poorly. That has been demonstrated quite well several times already without Stealth added into the mix.

The designs(the T-50 & J-20) show some obvious parallels to the F-22/35 and even the F-117 even though the designs are different. The data they have acquired from different sources helped them get to the baseline segment of actually building their designs and getting them into the air. But there is a lot more distance to go. Building these type of airframes and the requirement of exotic materials and processes is far more demanding than conventional airframes. I'd say their current benchmarks are about where we were in the mid to late 80's. If they cut corners and build them in numbers, then the effectiveness will likely be far below what should be expected of a 5th Generation Fighter. If either Russia or China take the time to get it right(which will take time), then the costs will go up and the affordability & numbers will go down. We already know Sukhoi is reporting that the T-50 is likely to undergo prolonged delays and the costs may double. Last report was that the total number to be built may drop down to 150 from the planned 250. The thing to keep an eye on with China's J-20 is how fast they produce and test succeeding prototypes and what changes may occur in the outward appearance. This will be very telling on what the project's end game may be.

 

[crashaz]

Global superpower phooey. The Chinese Navy couldn't get out of the East China Sea.... admirals here have been playing up the "carrier-killer" missile for appropriations in my mind. Nothing trumps a Carrier Battle Group. Our subs are still the best.

 

[Bone]

Alot of discussion (academic) on the chinese fighters, but what are they going to do with them? Are these airframes just going to have a flat-line existence all the way into obsolescence, like every other fighter they've had over the last 50 years? Uselessly fly them into uselessness?

Taiwan, the Spratley Islands, and maybe Vietnam would be the only targets China could possibly have. (I'll leave out the Korea's, because China would have to go through the North to get to the South, and could easily wind up bogged down in the totally good for nothing North...that would be an oops for them.) But rolling over Taiwan, the Spratleys, or Vietnam would be more trouble than it's worth. With the exception of the Spratleys and their oil, there would be no point of value. Bringing the two China's back together? Increasing land holdings vis-a-vis Vietnam? There would really be no viable gains for China in any agrression scenario. If China did roll into the Spratleys, they would have quite a number of enemies to face, so the gain just wouldn't be worth the pain.

 

[deathfromafar]

Alot of discussion (academic) on the chinese fighters, but what are they going to do with them? Are these airframes just going to have a flat-line existence all the way into obsolescence, like every other fighter they've had over the last 50 years? Uselessly fly them into uselessness?

Taiwan, the Spratley Islands, and maybe Vietnam would be the only targets China could possibly have. (I'll leave out the Korea's, because China would have to go through the North to get to the South, and could easily wind up bogged down in the totally good for nothing North...that would be an oops for them.) But rolling over Taiwan, the Spratleys, or Vietnam would be more trouble than it's worth. With the exception of the Spratleys and their oil, there would be no point of value. Bringing the two China's back together? Increasing land holdings vis-a-vis Vietnam? There would really be no viable gains for China in any agrression scenario. If China did roll into the Spratleys, they would have quite a number of enemies to face, so the gain just wouldn't be worth the pain.

Bone, that is precisely what I used to say when I sat in discussion groups dating back 20 years. We looked at it frontwards and backwards and sideways. I stood steadfastly on every remark you just made. Our group discussion was centered primarily on the possible retaking of Taiwan and Korean Peninsula response. Less than 2 decades ago, PRC Air Forces had one of the lowest mission readiness and regeneration rates of any air force in the world. We're talking day long or longer regeneration rates. They had so many aircraft(all obsolete) that they could keep multiple groups staged while some flew. When recovery of a flight was made, those would rotate to "back of the line" so to speak while the staged aircraft would launch. The system they used was highly vulnerable in more ways than one and their logistical system for Ground and Sea Forces wasn't much better. But since that time, China has started to follow a doctrine that is more like Western Military capability and they have reduced the bloated and ineffective size they used to be at to more practical means and gradually with better equipment. But I have taken notice that some of their advanced and fielded pieces of ground equipment like the Type 99 Tank for example have been limited to small numbers due to high costs and upgrading previous versions. They still have a long way to go to flush out all the obsolete segments and modernize but they will be in a far different position before this decade is out.

What does it all mean? Truth is, we don't know. As always, we have a zero percent rate of accurately predicting future aggressions. We can only do our best to be prepared for what might suddenly become a stark reality in the future. I still contend that China is coming out more and more and pushing their weight the same. There's no major regional threat to them which leaves the question of their true intentions in the region and with their military buildup(modernization). When they openly assert the US is a Superpower in decline and impose their will on neighboring nations, it's quite possibly a sign of things to come. I take the safe road and not assume anything. Everything is subject to change and often when we least expect it.

 

[centuryseries]

Bone, that is precisely what I used to say when I sat in discussion groups dating back 20 years. We looked at it frontwards and backwards and sideways. I stood steadfastly on every remark you just made. Our group discussion was centered primarily on the possible retaking of Taiwan and Korean Peninsula response. Less than 2 decades ago, PRC Air Forces had one of the lowest mission readiness and regeneration rates of any air force in the world. We're talking day long or longer regeneration rates. They had so many aircraft(all obsolete) that they could keep multiple groups staged while some flew. When recovery of a flight was made, those would rotate to "back of the line" so to speak while the staged aircraft would launch. The system they used was highly vulnerable in more ways than one and their logistical system for Ground and Sea Forces wasn't much better. But since that time, China has started to follow a doctrine that is more like Western Military capability and they have reduced the bloated and ineffective size they used to be at to more practical means and gradually with better equipment. But I have taken notice that some of their advanced and fielded pieces of ground equipment like the Type 99 Tank for example have been limited to small numbers due to high costs and upgrading previous versions. They still have a long way to go to flush out all the obsolete segments and modernize but they will be in a far different position before this decade is out.

What does it all mean? Truth is, we don't know. As always, we have a zero percent rate of accurately predicting future aggressions. We can only do our best to be prepared for what might suddenly become a stark reality in the future. I still contend that China is coming out more and more and pushing their weight the same. There's no major regional threat to them which leaves the question of their true intentions in the region and with their military buildup(modernization). When they openly assert the US is a Superpower in decline and impose their will on neighboring nations, it's quite possibly a sign of things to come. I take the safe road and not assume anything. Everything is subject to change and often when we least expect it.

Points very well put.

To Crashaz, I'm talking about global superpower in terms of manufacturing and economic growth as opposed to military superpower.

So much stuff is made in China these days. You go to London for a holiday by a souvenir of London look at the bottom and it says "Made in China" lol

 

[Bjoern]

Alot of discussion (academic) on the chinese fighters, but what are they going to do with them? Are these airframes just going to have a flat-line existence all the way into obsolescence, like every other fighter they've had over the last 50 years? Uselessly fly them into uselessness?

Wouldn't that be the best case scenario?

After all, everything in the nuclear department fielded since "Mushroom Cloud Day" #1 and #2 over Japan hasn't been used in anger. That stuff just stood around in its silos or dusted away in storages just to be scrapped a few (dozen) years later.

After all, arms of all kind aren't meant to be used. They're just there for deterrence.

 

[Bone]

Wouldn't that be the best case scenario?

After all, everything in the nuclear department fielded since "Mushroom Cloud Day" #1 and #2 over Japan hasn't been used in anger. That stuff just stood around in its silos or dusted away in storages just to be scrapped a few (dozen) years later.

After all, arms of all kind aren't meant to be used. They're just there for deterrence.

Yes, we certainly aren't itching for anyone to use their weapons systems.