Hello Hubbabubba,
You are correct. I do not tread lightly. It isn't in my nature though I should probably learn a bit more diplomacy.
While I do agree that the Japanese were doomed from the moment their bombs started falling over Pearl Harbor, I think that the sinking of the last three aircraft carrier - and their escort - would have forced a return to San Diego for what was left of the Pacific Fleet.
Since the end of WWI, Japanese were installed in the Marshall islands as a protectorate, and they had little difficulty commercing with them and maintaining a civil and military presence. These islands are roughly at the same distance from Tokyo than Midway. This was, of course, under peacetime.
The logistic shortcomings of the IJN were to become obvious basically everywhere they planted their flag.
I don't see how the loss of all three US carriers at Midway would have forced anything other than the loss of Midway itself.
Hawaii was totally defendable and not invade-able by the Japanese. The Japanese didn't have the manpower to carry out such an invasion and certainly could not supply Hawaii if by a miracle such an invasion succeeded.
US had done quite a lot of reinforcing in the six months since Pearl Harbor. The Japanese could never achieve air superiority over Hawaii, certainly not with the size of air group they could carry aboard their carriers.
The Line-Up of US Carriers looks about like this as I see it:
CV-1 Langley - Useful for Transport only.
CV-2 Lexington - Sunk at Coral Sea
CV-3 Saratoga - Damaged by repairable
CV-4 Ranger - Atlantic Fleet but totally operational though not as good as other fleet carriers
CV-5 Yorktown - Lost at Midway
CV-6 Enterprise - Presumed Lost at Midway
CV-7 Wasp - Operational
CV-8 Hornet - Presumed Lost at Midway
CV-9 Essex - To be Commissioned at the end of 1942 to be followed by a few susters
CVL-22 Independence Class Cruiser conversions - Available starting early 1943.
So life might be difficult for a time with only Saratoga, Ranger and Wasp, but "USS Oahu" wasn't going away.
One of the major problems with Japanese shipping was that they relied very heavily (about half IIRC) on foreign vessels which became instantly unavailable when the war began.
Another even more severe problem was that it was not just the Imperial Japanese Navy. The Army ran its own shipping and supply and the two did not coordinate. Thus often an Army ship would deliver a cargo and carry ballast home instead of a useful cargo. This rivalry was quite ugly.
Small maybe, but large enough to park six Grumman TBF-1 Avengers, 19 Douglas SDB Dauntlesses, 7 Grumman F4F-3 Wildcats, 17 Vought SB2U-3 Vindicators, 21 Brewter F2A-3 Buffaloes, 17 B-17 Fortresses and 8 B-26 Marauders, and with enough runways to let them all take-off! I don't think that any carrier, past or present, could "spot" so many.
Add to that number 31 PBY Catalinas and you have a formidable, and unsinkable, aircraft carrier and float-plane tender. Of all the objectives attacked by the combined air groups of the four IJN carriers involved, only Midway received a "full blow" (108 aircraft), and it was judged by the Japanese that a second attack was necessary to "soften-up" the target! The Yorktown was abandoned after two attacks from a single carrier, totaling forty (24 + 16) aircraft, many being shot down before engaging their target.
I really don't think that all that was futile.
An island airfield like Midways SOUNDS nice and imposing as an unsinkable aircraft carrier, but consider the realities:
Yes, they can park a LOT of aircraft. They can carry a LOT of fuel and ordnance.
They rely on water borne transport for all supply unlike a carrier which goes to the supply source.
They have multiple runways because they cannot "Head Into the Wind" for take-off.
They cannot put another 30 Knots of wind to assist aircraft on a short runway.
There are not multiple levels of hangars and aircraft parks so everything is above ground and very hard to hide in an area the size of Midway.
Besides supplies, Aircraft and personnel must all be delivered.
They also cannot vanish into the fog and need to be found again.
The carrier takes a lot less destroying as you know because it IS sinkable and is full of nice combustible stores.
Sometimes it doesn't even take much as the Germans proved with just one torpedo into the HMS Ark Royal.
Maybe I over simplified a bit. A war is seldom easy, but in the next year, the US would have more new carries than all the carriers at the start of the war. The Japanese could not match this capacity even if they had not lost a single ship at Midway.
- Ivan.